But will Windows 8 be enough to keep Microsoft from sliding into 3rd place?

Windows 8 versions

The introduction of touch to desktops began with Windows 8 in October 2012. Microsoft’s new touch operating system slowly gains user acceptance.

But will Windows 8 be enough to keep Microsoft from sliding into 3rd place in computers and mobile devices?

Since launch Windows 8 has sold 40,000 million licenses and now has 2.3% of all Windows traffic on the Internet.

Chitika, the advertising company that monitors web usage, published its latest estimate of internet users by operating system.

That’s a decent start for Windows 8. Microsoft will have to increase Windows 8 market share month by month if there is any hope Microsoft will not fall below 50% of all computing devices.

According to Wikipedia estimates, about 69% of all computers, smartphones and tablets used the Windows operating system in October 2012. That’s down from more than 90% for Microsoft Windows four years ago.

For Microsoft it’s either do touch or die a slow death as people buy smartphones and tablets at an every increasing rate.

Annual worldwide sales of computers were about 800 million.  Gartner predicts that 600 million smartphones and tablets will be sold in 2012 while sales of computers go down year-over-year.

More people are finding they can do almost everything they want on a smartphone or tablet.

Technology adoption

While the adoption rate for Windows 8 is respectable and compares with early adoption of Windows 7, businesses are reluctant to adopt Windows 8. The dual nature of Windows 8 with touch aware applications and legacy keyboard/mouse driven apps is a challenge.  Windows 8 means computer monitors need to be upgrade at a cost of $500 or more each.

Windows 8 is a new transformational operating system from Microsoft. All new technology follows the technology adoption life cycle with a few innovators trying it then passing on their views through word of mouth, blogging and reviews.

Early adopters take up new technology if the innovators form a positive consensus. Next the early majority will adopt the product in the way the iPhone became the must-have smartphone 2 years ago.

In the same way, Google’s Android operating system passed the first two stages of the adoption curve. Android is now is the most popular smartphone operating system, in the middle of the curve.

Samsung successfully mocked Apple in its advertising last summer by suggesting only older people, and hence technologically more conservative (late majority), would line up for a new iPhone.

While still popular, the iPhone and iPad are now late stage products that lack innovation and do not capture the interest of Innovators and Early Adopters, who are always looking for the Next Great Thing to give them the advantage.

Can Microsoft break through the Apple Android barrier ?

Microsoft has traditionally been a successful marketer of technology but not a first innovator. Windows was an adaptation and improvement on the first Mac operating system, which itself copied the Xerox Star. Microsoft did Windows better and marketed it better thereby punting Apple to 5% market share in the bleachers.

Xbox Music as storefront in Windows Phone 8

Microsoft has pulled off this business model again and again. The Xbox came out of nowhere against Nintendo and Sony PlayStation. For the past 15 months, Xbox has been the top-selling game console, with 56% market share.

The game market is declining based in part on the aging customer base and replacement of game consoles with smartphones. It’s no accident that Microsoft brands its smartphone music store with the Xbox label – Xbox Music.

The arrival of more Windows 8 compatible hardware, Windows 8 tablets and now Windows Phone 8 smartphones will increase Microsoft’s chances of success.